Barclays says dollar resilience to persist as U.S. economy rebounds

  • Barclays says the dollar has held firm despite bearish shocks, stabilising after earlier weakness. The bank sees U.S. economic resilience keeping the currency supported but warns Fed independence concerns pose a risk.
US dollar index, DXY 26 September 2025 2

Barclays currency strategists say the U.S. dollar has shown unexpected resilience, trading in a narrow range over the past few months despite what they describe as “extraordinarily bearish events.” The greenback fell sharply between February and May but has since steadied, showing little further weakness even as data softened and Fed credibility came under pressure.

Looking ahead, Barclays expects the U.S. economy to rebound, which could underpin the dollar’s strength. The bank cautioned, however, that risks tied to the independence of the Federal Reserve remain a potential headwind.

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