Fundamental Overview
The USD regained some ground in the past days but the momentum stalled as December rate cut odds jumped following Fed’s Williams dovish comments.
As of now, the December rate cut odds stand around 70% but we won’t get much data before the FOMC meeting, so the focus will likely be mainly on jobless claims and ADP data. Weak data should keep weighing on the greenback, while strong data could provide some short-term support.
On the AUD side, all the economic data came out on the hawkish side with big upside surprises in both the inflation and employment reports. The RBA is now comfortably on the sidelines with the market not seeing a rate cut in 2026 anymore.
Tomorrow, we have the Australian monthly CPI data but it’s unlikely to change anything for the RBA as the central bank has already mentioned many times that monthly data is more volatile and they focus more on the quarterly reports.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD probed below the October lows on Friday but eventually bounced back following Fed’s Williams rate cut endorsement. The buyers will likely continue to step in around these levels targeting a rally into the 0.6520 resistance next. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 0.6350 support.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a downward trendline defining the bearish momentum. The sellers will likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 0.6520 level next.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the sellers will look for a rejection, while the buyers will target a breakout. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
Today we get the weekly ADP jobs data and the US Consumer Confidence report. We will also get the September US PPI and Retail Sales reports. Tomorrow, we have the Australian monthly CPI data and the most recent US Jobless Claims figures. On Thursday, we have the US Thanksgiving holiday which is likely to make the final part of the week more rangebound.
