CBS reports:
U.S. intelligence assets have begun to see indications Iran is taking steps to deploy mines in Strait of Hormuz shipping lane. Iran is using smaller crafts that can carry 2 to 3 mines each. While Iran’s mine stock isn’t publicly known, estimates over the years have ranged from roughly 2,000 to 6,000 naval mines of Iranian, Chinese and Russian-made variants
Meanwhile as separate Axios report says:
The U.S. government has urged Israel not to carry out further strikes on Iran’s energy and oil infrastructure, marking the first time it has restrained Israeli action since their joint operations began. Washington’s concerns include civilian harm, post‑war cooperation with Iran’s oil sector, and risks of broader regional retaliation that could disrupt global energy markets
This is a tough market to trade as WTI is now up $10 from the lows of the day on the Chris Wright mess and trading at $87/barrel.
I have a hard time believing that 2-3 mines in small boats can't be combated but it's a large body of water and on tanker getting hit by a naval mine could wreck the insurance market once again.
As for where oil lands when this finally cools down, Goldman Sachs is out with a note:
Goldman: We estimate the fair value of crude prices based on the cumulative hits to Persian Gulf crude production and to commercial oil inventories after accounting for policy responses (e.g. SPRs) and assuming a Brent fair value in the low $60s without the Iran shock. Exhibit 2 shows 2026Q4 fair value estimates for Brent/WTI (forwards at $74/70) of: $76/72 in a risk scenario where Persian Gulf exports are down 15mb/d for 30 days$93/89 in a 60-days risk scenario with a15mb/d exports hit.
Update: The FT reports that the latest meeting of G7 countries on releasing oil stockpiles ended without a decision on releasing crude inventories.
