Copper demand drivers shift from China to the US and India - market fragmentation replaces a single dominant consumer as global consumption slows in Asia.
The global copper market is undergoing a fundamental shift as China’s decades-long infrastructure and industrial expansion slows. Analysts forecast that China’s share of global consumption will drop from 57% to an estimated 52% by 2031, signalling a return to fragmented, replacement-cycle drivers outside of Asia.
Future demand growth will be led by the United States and India, both requiring vast amounts of copper for massive infrastructure overhauls.
United States: US copper demand is forecast to surge by nearly 50% by 2031, driven primarily by the modernisation of its ageing power grid and the construction of new AI data centres.
India: India’s demand is expected to rise by over 30%, fuelled by the expansion of its electrical transmission network necessary to support its national goal of 500 GW of non-fossil fuel-based energy capacity.
This trend is accelerated by geopolitical factors. US policies, including a 50% tariff on Chinese copper products, are actively encouraging local manufacturing and reducing the market for China’s exported manufactured goods. These regional policy and infrastructure cycles mean producers and investors must adapt to a less centralised, multi-driver global market.
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Info via Reuters.
