If Trump wanted Russia to lose the war in Ukraine or regime change in Iran/Venezuela, what would be his first move?
The wise move would be to pull on whatever levers possible to get oil prices down in order to minimize a spike later. You could do that by leaning on Saudi Arabia and allies in OPEC to open up the taps.
That appears to be what's happened as OPEC has pumped (at least officially) well beyond what anyone expected when Trump rolled into office. That has WTI down to $61 and a broad belief that the crude market will be oversupplied in the year ahead.
But what's Part 2? Today we're learning that Trump is preparing to attack military installations within Venezuela. I happen to think the 700-900 mbpd of Venezuelan exports (a third of that is controlled by Chevron) is insignificant and not at risk but it may speak to Trump's strategy. The bigger levers are Iran -- which has already been struck -- and Russia with its 12 mbpd of production.
TotalEnergies CEO is out with a notable comment today.
"I am more bullish […] because I begin to realize that these sanctions will have a real impact in this market,” he said. "I think the market is underestimating what it means.”
I'm cautious on oil at the moment because OPEC is going to add even more barrels this weekend but a real geopolitical shock could be a gamechanger and at some point in 2026, crude might be the best trade out there.
