If you want to know how talks are going between Iran and the USA then you don't need to look any further than the intraday WTI crude oil chart. It was lower earlier on some profit taking ahead of talks but since the talks ended, it's been one-way traffic higher.
Reports continue to highlight that the US has taken minimalist positions, including a reversal of conventional missile production, exporting enriched uranium out of the country and destroying nuclear (or not?) sites. There is also the thorny issue of regional proxies, which Iran formally denies.
The main signal the market continues to see is the massive US military buildup in the region. Talk is around something like 5-day massive aerial bombardment by the US and Israel. One report says Israel is being prodded to attack first as some kind of cover for US involvement. That doesn't really pass the smell test but last month the US abducted Venezuela's head of state so we're not really playing the old games anymore.
The only real question here is what capability does Iran have regarding striking back and whether the US is willing to tolerate a militarily-diminished regime staying in power. Perhaps Venezuela is instrumental here as it looks like largely business as usual after Maduro was sent to a US prison with his wife.
In any case, there isn't much value in speculating on what either Trump or the Iranian regime will do. It's all wait-and-see at this point but the long history of geopolitical trades on oil almost always favors a 'sell the fact' stance as conflicts are rarely as long or intense as the fears about them. Moreover, no one has much incentive to destroy oil infrastructure.
That said, Scotia is out with a note today saying:
Iranian oil exports will go to zero, possibly for an extended period of time due to infrastructure and international embargo.
In terms of the technicals, a break of $67.28 would be the best level since July.
Finally, there are reports of strikes in Lebanon and some are seeing that as the first signs of more coming.
