The trading week of January 5, 2026, has begun with significant market movements driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and shifting regulatory landscapes. A primary driver of volatility is the situation in Venezuela, where China has issued a sharp rebuke regarding the reported US seizure of President Maduro, urging his immediate release and condemning the move as a violation of international law. The uncertainty surrounding this conflict has spurred a flight to safety in global markets: precious metals have rallied, with gold surging 2.1% to $4,420 and silver rising 3.7% to $75.46. Similarly, the US dollar is holding firmer against major currencies like the Euro and Yen, defying expectations of a long-term softening as investors seek stability.
In the digital asset space, Bitcoin is seeing gains fueled by positive institutional and regulatory developments rather than geopolitical strife. Professional services giant PwC has signaled a major strategic pivot toward crypto services, citing the newfound regulatory clarity provided by the "GENIUS Act" and the pro-crypto stance of the Trump administration. This move is viewed as a significant validation of the sector, reinforcing the narrative of institutionalization and driving Bitcoin higher as the new year gets underway.
The 1st Gold Technical Analysis of Year 2026 Shows Bulls are Back
Video analysis date: January 5, 2026 | Timeframe: 1-hour chart | Analyst: Itai Levitan
Key Takeaways from the Gold Futures Analysis Video
Gold futures opened the week with a sharp push higher (~+102.5 points / +2.37%) after bouncing precisely off the Value Area Low (VAL) from Friday’s anchored volume profile.
A “triple-support” structure formed at VAL, and the sequence of higher lows hinted that buyers were stepping in early (no patience for a perfect tag).
Price reclaimed the Value Area High (VAH) and broke above prior highs, shifting the narrative toward acceptance back above value rather than a sell-the-rally setup.
The next upside “decision zone” sits around 4,440, then the 4,450–4,454 area (semi-round number + pitchfork top), where partial profit-taking could spark a pullback.
If a pullback reaches the VAH near ~4,385, that area becomes a potential “bulls prove it” retest zone; failure there would weaken the immediate bullish thesis.
What I’m Watching on the Gold Futures 1-Hour Chart
Coming into the first full week of 2026, I’m focused on how gold reacted to value—specifically an anchored volume profile drawn across the prior range (Friday). In this framework:
The blue line marks the Value Area Low (VAL) (support edge of value).
The Value Area High (VAH) is the upper boundary of that value zone.
The red line is the Point of Control (POC)—the price level with the highest traded volume in that range.
The key detail from the video: gold didn’t just “bounce somewhere.” It found support exactly at VAL, and then the market opened above the POC and retraced cleanly into that area—effectively “tying the dots together” between support, value, and acceptance.
That’s the difference between generic chart-watching and professional-level contextual analysis: the market is telling a story about where participants are comfortable doing business.
The Golden Bounce Matters: Triple Support + Higher Lows
After the initial rejection into VAL, the chart built what I’d call a triple-support area around the Value Area Low. Even better for the bulls, the lows began to ratchet higher:
Each subsequent dip stopped above the prior low.
That’s often a sign of buyer urgency—participants are willing to pay up rather than wait for the “perfect” touch.
In practical terms, that “higher lows” structure can be an early clue that the move off VAL isn’t just a dead-cat bounce—it’s potentially a transition from liquidation to accumulation, especially when paired with a reclaim of value.
Gold is Reclaiming Value and Breaking Highs: Why This Isn’t a Clean Short
Once price cleared back above the VAH (blue line) and pushed through prior swing highs, the tone changed. A common trap in this sequence is the “breakout… then dump back into range” move that traps late bulls (a classic fakeout / bull trap).
But in the video’s read, the market produced a cleaner breakout attempt afterward—making aggressive shorting here look more like fading strength into rising acceptance, rather than selling into clear failure.
Put differently: when price reclaims value, holds it, and starts building above it, the market is often signaling mean reversion back into higher value rather than immediate collapse.
Key Levels on the Radar for Gold Futures Today
The video outlines several volume-profile-derived levels that matter as price pushes higher. Here’s how I’d organize them for execution planning:
| Level | Why it matters | What I’d expect |
|---|---|---|
| 4,440 | First notable level ahead from additional volume profile work | Initial pause/rotation risk; “first target” behavior |
| 4,450 | Semi-round number + natural magnet | Common area for offers + trimming |
| ~4,454 | Aligns with the top of the pitchfork | “Decision point” where profit-taking can bite |
| 4,473.5 | Key level from volume profile analysis | If reclaimed/accepted, continuation odds improve |
| 4,489 | Higher key level from volume profile analysis | Potential next major objective if momentum persists |
| ~4,385 | Value Area High retest zone (“join-the-long” area if it holds) | A pullback here can be constructive—if defended |
Why 4,450–4,454 is a likely reaction zone
Even in bullish conditions, risk management becomes the driver after a big up-move. In professional settings, a desk (or risk team) often won’t allow a trader to sit on a large scaled position without taking partial profits into a pre-defined level.
So, around 4,450-ish—especially with confluence near 4,454—a pullback wouldn’t be a surprise. It may simply be profit-taking, not a bearish reversal.
The Technical Scenarios for Gold Futures Today
This is not about prediction—it’s about if/then structure.
Bullish continuation scenario
If price holds above reclaimed value and continues to accept above the VAH,
then the market can keep pressing into 4,440, followed by the 4,450–4,454 zone.
If bulls can absorb selling there and regain traction,
then the path opens toward 4,473.5 and potentially 4,489.
Constructive pullback scenario (the “present”)
If price retraces and tags the VAH near ~4,385 and buyers defend it,
then that’s the type of retest that can offer a cleaner long thesis (joining strength after support proves itself).
Bearish invalidation risk
If the market loses the VAH and can’t reclaim it (failed acceptance),
then the bullish narrative weakens and the move risks sliding back into the prior range.
A deeper failure would be signaled if price returns to (and breaks) the Value Area Low region that launched the move.
What I Want to See From Order Flow Next
The video mentions that this analysis will be paired with order flow hints—the kind of “under the candles” evidence that helps distinguish conviction vs. non-conviction.
In plain terms, into levels like 4,450–4,454, I’m watching for:
Aggressive buying that actually moves price (real demand), vs. buying that stalls (absorption).
Whether pullbacks are sharp and impulsive (risk-off liquidation) or orderly (structured profit-taking).
Whether breakouts hold above the level (acceptance) or immediately snap back (failed auction).
Return to this page for order flow insights for gold today, to see not only how price develops but what the 'under the hood' of it says!
Update: 11:30 GMT | Mid-Session Order Flow "X-Ray"
Current Volumetric Score: +3 (Neutral/Cautious) (Down from +7 earlier this morning)
According to the above analysis, I predicted that Gold futures will grind up to 'semi round number' 4450 and that there is no reason to short. We reached that price.
Now a bit about order flow! If you are new to trading, you might be looking at a standard candlestick chart and thinking, "Gold is going up, I should buy!" But here at the orderFlow Intel Desk, we look inside the candles to see the fuel driving the move. Think of it like checking the gas tank before a long road trip—the car might be moving, but if the tank is empty, it won't get far.
Here is what the "X-Ray" view is telling us right now:
1. The "Easy Money" Phase is Over Earlier today, we saw aggressive buying (high "Delta SL") pushing the price up. This was the market stepping on the gas. We rode that momentum as Gold moved toward the psychological "magnet" of 4,450.
2. Hitting the "Invisible Wall" (The Education Bit) As price hit that 4,450 target, something changed under the hood. We saw a massive "Supply Injection" at the 05:54 bar.
What happened? Nearly 8,000 contracts traded (high volume), but price closed Red.
The Metric: Our "Ceiling" detector (Delta SH) spiked to -525.
What it means: Imagine a hidden wall of sell orders. Buyers tried to push through, but sellers were waiting with heavy limit orders, effectively blocking the path.
3. Exhaustion: The Marathon Runner Gold has been sprinting since the gap-up this morning without a real break. The current price action shows "drift"—low volume and weak buying pressure. The market is like a marathon runner who just sprinted a steep hill (the 4,450 level) and is now out of breath.
Bottom Line for Traders: We are downgrading our score to Neutral (+3). The aggressive "Buy the Dip" signal is paused. We need to see price pull back and "refuel" at lower levels (likely the VWAP or the 04:43 breakout point) before we consider joining the bulls again.
Don't just watch the price; watch the fuel.
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Update: 12:45 GMT | Breakdown Confirmed Volumetric Score Downgrade: From +3 to -5 (Bearish Reversal)
The warning signs from our last update have materialized into a confirmed breakdown. The "drift" at the highs has resolved downward, and the market is now liquidating the morning's long positions.
"Under the Hood" Signals:
The Floor Has Vanished: The most critical data point right now is the Delta SL metric. For the last two consecutive bars (06:25 & 06:27), Delta at lows has flatlined at 0.
What This Means: The "Guardians" (passive buyers) who were aggressively lifting the market all morning have completely stepped aside. There are currently zero significant buy limits protecting the downside, creating a vacuum for price to fall through.
Efficiency: We are seeing high-efficiency selling (Delta -282 on low volume), confirming that sellers are hitting bids without resistance.
Next Move: With the "floor gone," expect gravity to take over until price finds the next major support.
Target: We are looking for a test of the VWAP or the 03:13 Volume Base (where the 11k volume spike occurred).
Strategy: The long bias is officially invalidated. Do not attempt to "catch the falling knife" until Delta at lows prints positive numbers again.
Update: 16:00 GMT | The "Ping-Pong" Reversal & Breakout Watch System: orderFlow Intel
Opportunity Score: +8 (Strong Bullish)
How to Read Our Score:
-10 to -6 (Bearish): Sellers are dominating. The market is likely crashing or reversing down.
-5 to +5 (Neutral): A "tug-of-war." The market is chopping sideways or undecided.
+6 to +10 (Bullish): Buyers are dominating. The market is trending up or preparing to breakout.
Current Status: A score of +8 indicates that buyers have regained full control and a breakout is highly probable.
Earlier today, we warned that the "floor had vanished," leading to a sharp drop. Since then, the market has completed a textbook "Ping-Pong" move—bouncing perfectly off the Value Area Low (4407) and rallying all the way back to the highs (4443).
Here is what the orderFlow Intel is seeing right now:
1. The Return of the Buyers (The Floor is Back) When price hit the lows at 4407 earlier, we saw a critical shift. The selling pressure dried up, and aggressive buyers stepped in.
Under the Hood: We observed strong positive delta from the lows on the reversal bars.
Education Moment: Think of "positive delta from the lows" as a trampoline. When price tries to push down, passive buy orders trigger immediately, springing the price back up. This tells us "Smart Money" is defending that price level.
2. The Vanishing Resistance This is the most exciting signal for the afternoon.
The Setup: We are currently testing the exact same high (near 4443) where we saw a massive "Supply Wall" earlier this morning.
The Difference: This time, that wall is gone. The aggressive selling pressure we saw at the highs earlier (which we call the "ceiling") is virtually zero right now.
What it means: It’s like knocking on a door that was bolted shut this morning, only to find it unlocked now. When a market returns to a resistance level and finds no sellers, the path of least resistance is usually UP.
Next Move: We are watching for a clean breakout through 4445. With the "ceiling" removed, if buyers maintain their current effort, we expect a retest of the psychological 4450 level shortly.
Where to Follow Along
In addition to order flow insights from orderFlow Intel, we also have our investingLive Stocks Channel on Telegram, where additional ideas across gold and other instruments are shared periodically. Hop on over! Always trade at your own risk, always do your own research. And do visit investingLive.com for additional, original, expert opinions.
