FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Silver has been slowly recovering the losses in the past days helped by the lack of bearish catalysts, but a crucial US NFP report today could hurt the bulls.
In fact, the market is pricing 60 bps of easing for the Fed this year, so there’s a high risk of a hawkish repricing in case the data comes out strong. In such a scenario, we will likely see silver selling off and potentially reaching new lows.
On the other hand, a weak report should strengthen the case for more Fed easing and might even see traders bringing forward rate cut bets as some Fed members expressed scepticism about labour market stabilisation. That should give silver a boost and act as a tailwind into new highs.
SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On the daily chart, we can see silver slowly approaching the most recent swing high at 92.20. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the swing level to position for a drop into the major trendline around the 64.00 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into new all-time highs.
SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the recent price action with the key swing level at 92.20. We will likely need a soft NFP report to reach that level and even break above it. If the NFP report comes out strong, the price might immediately sell off into the trendline without hitting the swing level first.
SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1 hour chart, we have a minor support zone around the 83.00 level. If we get a pullback, we can expect the buyers to step in at the support with a defined risk below it to keep targeting new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to pile in for a drop into the major trendline. From a risk management perspective, it would be better to wait for the US NFP report at this point. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
Today we have the US NFP report. Tomorrow, we get the US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US CPI report.
