The US Core CPI surprised to the downside today giving silver another boost as the market firmed up rate cuts expectations. Last month's report was taken with a pinch of salt given the shutdown related issues, but today's report confirmed the easing seen in the prior month.
Silver continues to benefit from strong tailwinds like geopolitical tensions, Fed rate cuts bets and renewed attacks on the Fed independence. In fact, just yesterday silver jumped to new all-time highs after the news of the US Department of Justice subpoenaing the Federal Reserve in a move seen as a pretext to give Trump a reason to fire Fed Chair Powell "for cause" in case he's indicted.
On the daily chart above, we can see how yesterday's breakout opened the door for much higher prices as we got out of a consolidation. It remains a buy-on-dips market given the lack of bearish catalysts.
Tomorrow, we have a potential US Supreme Court decision on Trump's tariffs and that could pose a risk for the upside in case tariffs are struck down. In fact, such a decision would ease a lot stagflationary risks and raise global growth speculations, likely leading to better economic data down the road.
I would expect a selloff in silver and gold in the short term on such a positive development even though Trump's officials have already stated that they have a plan to put tariffs back on using other means.
