Dalio warns of swelling market bubble and ‘ticking time bomb’ U.S. deficit
Veteran investor Ray Dalio says signs of speculative excess are flashing across global markets, warning that his proprietary “bubble indicator” is running at relatively high levels even as monetary conditions remain loose.
Speaking with CNBC at the Future Investment Initiative 2025 summit in Riyadh, the Bridgewater Associates founder said his model tracks not only valuations but also ownership patterns and financing structures:
- Bubbles don’t pop until they’re popped by monetary tightening
- Right now, we’re more likely to see easing than tightening because many parts of the economy are weakening
Dalio compared the current setup to late-cycle periods before past crashes:
- It’s probably going to produce more of a bubble, something like 1998-99 or 1927-28
- Dalio citing elevated asset prices and a surge in speculative capital.
- singled out technology and AI-related stocks as areas showing the frothiest behaviour
- the U.S. fiscal trajectory poses a mounting systemic risk
- federal deficit a ticking time bomb
Likes gold:
- “People need to think of gold differently than they think of gold”
- “It’s the most fundamental money”
- everyone should have some type of exposure in their portfolio, likely somewhere between 5% and 15%
