Palladium Futures Technical Analysis: Testing the August Pivot Channel
I’m Itai Levitan from investingLive.com, and today we’re revisiting Palladium futures (PA DEC25) through a broader one-hour technical perspective.
investingLive.com — previously ForexLive.com — delivers real-time market news and analysis across forex, stocks, commodities, and global markets, providing traders and investors with fast, data-driven insights to support informed decision-making.
Earlier today, I published “Palladium Technical Analysis: What’s Next After a 14% Collapse Since Friday,” which explored the recent selloff through our proprietary orderFlow Intel system. That piece focused on what the underlying order flow data revealed about buyer and seller behavior and where institutional traders might be accumulating positions.
This follow-up takes a technical charting perspective using the one-hour timeframe to explore where Palladium stands after the retest of its August pivot channel — and what may come next. See the following Palladium Technical Analysis Video from Today:
In the Palladim Analysis Video Above: From the August Pivot to the Present
The current structure traces back to the August 27, 2025 pivot low, formed after roughly a 20% correction from the June–July highs. That low established a major structural base, and since then Palladium has traded inside a rising yellow channel that has defined the market’s trajectory for nearly two months.
After breaking above the channel, price advanced to $1,550 on October 9, confirming strong momentum.
It then backtested the upper boundary, held it successfully, and pushed higher — a bullish continuation pattern when an upward-sloping channel turns into support after breakout.
This rally extended to the 50-week high of $1,695 on October 16, before reversing sharply.
The Collapse and the Retest
Friday’s decline was extraordinary — from $1,692.5 down to $1,510.5, a −9.68% drop within one session.
In less than two days of futures trading, Palladium fell just over 14%, reaching today’s low of $1,456.5.
Technically, that move perfectly retested the same rising channel drawn from the August pivot, a critical area that often determines whether a longer-term uptrend survives or fails.
Given the magnitude of the selloff, the fact that price is stabilizing near the $1,500 round number — a strong psychological magnet — suggests that the market may be preparing for a short-term rebound or controlled retracement.
Key Technical Context for Palladium Futures Today
VWAP (1,501.5) – The volume-weighted average price remains near the 1,500 handle. A decisive move above this level would indicate renewed buyer control.
Point of Control (1,489) – A crucial short-term “line in the sand” between bulls and bears. Staying above it maintains the constructive bias.
Value Area Low (1,477) – Also today’s session low, reinforcing this zone as the first structural support.
Value Area High (1,512) – The next breakout threshold. A confirmed close above 1,512 could open the door toward 1,520–1,535, where the first upper VWAP deviation sits.
Palladium at an interesting technical crossroad...
From a pure technical standpoint, Palladium is sitting at an important inflection zone.
The market has retested its long-term channel and key value levels, and so far, the structure remains orderly rather than impulsive, implying potential for a controlled rebound.
For traders, this area presents a legitimate contrarian long setup within the 1,477–1,489 support cluster — provided that risk is managed carefully and partial profits are taken progressively if price moves higher.
As discussed in the earlier orderFlow Intel report, the structure still supports a bullish bias, though confirmation depends on Palladium holding above 1,489 and reclaiming VWAP around 1,501.5.
In summary:
After one of its steepest two-day declines in years, Palladium futures are once again testing the same rising channel that launched the August rally.
Whether this becomes a second rebound leg or a trend failure will hinge on how price behaves between 1,489 and 1,512 in the coming sessions.
For more detailed trade setups, including partial profit strategies and stop placement logic, follow the investingLive Stocks Telegram channel for real-time updates.
