FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Oil prices jumped yesterday after a couple of negative headlines seemed to point that the Islamabad talks were dead on arrival with Iran refusing to participate until the US blockade in the Strait of Hormuz was lifted.
Prices eased though after Trump extended the ceasefire (unsurprisingly) to allow more time for Tehran to put forward a proposal to end the war. There's no deadline for this latest extension, so we might just get stuck in this new situation until the bombs start dropping again or they finally reach a deal.
This morning, the sentiment has been a bit more positive after Tasnim reported that Iran received 'some sign' the US is ready to break the blockade which is giving traders hope that the talks are going to happen soon.
The price action continues to be driven by US-Iran headlines, and this is unlikely to change until we get an official resolution. For now, the path of least resistance remains to the downside amid the optimistic expectations but traders will keep a close eye on escalation signals.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On the daily chart, we can see that crude oil is pulling back into the 93.00 resistance zone. That’s where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop back into the 78.00 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 120.00 level next.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 4 hour chart, we can see the price broke above the downward trendline yesterday and extended the gains as more buyers piled in on the breakout. Again, the sellers will likely step in around the resistance to position for new lows, while the buyers will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 105.00 level next.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as from a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a better risk to reward setup around the resistance, while the buyers will need a breakout to open the door for new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
Tomorrow we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures and the US PMIs. The focus remains on US-Iran headlines.
