Reports suggesting that OPEC+ could announce a boost in production this weekend by as much as 500K bpd has put a chill into the oil market. WTI is down $0.57 today to $61.19, which is the lowest since June.
Oil had tried to put in a series of higher lows and that led to a nice spike to $66.50 but it's raplidly unwound on the OPEC reports and profit taking.
Zooming out, the daily chart is further establishing a downtrend since the May squeeze to $78 per barrel. We are likely on track to retest the post-Liberation Day lows. The continued high OPEC production runs into a period of seasonal weakness in oil demand.
Ultimately, a lack of investment in US shale and growing demand (about 1 mbpd annually) will rebalance the market but it could get ugly first.
