Natural Gas Futures Analysis Today: Sellers Regain Control Below the 3.40 Resistance
Natural Gas futures (ticker: NG) reversed sharply today after a strong early rally failed near the 3.40 level, an important zone aligned with yesterday’s VWAP and prior institutional activity. The session delivered a textbook rejection pattern, signaling that short-term sentiment has shifted back in favor of sellers.
Natural Gas Market Context and Technical Setup
During the early part of the U.S. session, Natural Gas prices climbed from around 3.32 to 3.39 as buyers drove price above the developing value area high.
However, the rally lost momentum just as price approached a dense resistance cluster between 3.39 and 3.40 — a zone that combines:
Yesterday’s VWAP, a key benchmark where institutional traders often rebalance positions.
The upper VWAP standard deviation, showing stretched short-term conditions.
Overlapping value area highs from earlier this week, marking prior supply zones.
Once price reached this area, aggressive selling hit the market, pushing price back below the point of control (POC) at 3.36. This reversal signaled that buyers had lost initiative and that value was shifting lower within the session.
orderFlow Intel Analysis
Advanced orderFlow Intel data confirms a decisive intraday transition from bullish enthusiasm to bearish control.
Early in the day, buyers dominated and lifted price easily, but that strength quickly disappeared as a Delta collapse occurred — meaning buying interest vanished while sellers aggressively hit the bid.
In practical terms, this shows that buyers stopped defending the market at lower prices, leaving the order book thin and vulnerable to downside acceleration. Sellers then stepped in with conviction, reclaiming control of short-term flow dynamics.
A brief rebound followed, likely driven by short covering rather than new institutional buying, since trading volume was significantly lighter than during the sell-off phase.
Price Action and Key Levels
The most decisive move came as price reached 3.393, just shy of the 3.40 magnet zone. The market sold off sharply, closing back below the POC.
If weakness continues, the next technical support areas are:
3.342: Today’s VWAP, which may serve as first support.
3.324: The developing value area low.
A recovery above 3.40 would invalidate the immediate bearish bias and reopen the path toward 3.44, where previous value area highs and VWAP levels align.
orderFlow Intel Prediction Score
Score: −6 (Bearish Bias)
The orderFlow Intel scale runs from −10 to +10, where:
−10 = extremely bearish momentum and strong selling imbalance
0 = neutral, indecisive order flow
+10 = extremely bullish momentum and strong buying imbalance
A reading of −6 reflects firm but not extreme seller control, consistent with a reversal from resistance and declining buyer participation. Unless Natural Gas reclaims the 3.40 level with strong volume, the short-term bias remains bearish.
Natural Gas Trading Outlook
Resistance: 3.390–3.400 (VWAP confluence and sell zone)
Support: 3.342 (VWAP) and 3.324 (developing value low)
Bearish Target Range: 3.298–3.279 if momentum continues lower
Invalidation: Sustained close above 3.40 with expanding positive delta and volume
Summary for Today's Natural Gas Traders (Day and Swing!)
Today’s Natural Gas futures analysis highlights a clear sentiment rotation as sellers re-emerged around the 3.40 resistance zone. The rejection pattern, confirmed by orderFlow Intel signals and declining buyer engagement, suggests a possible continuation toward lower value levels.
While short-term rebounds are possible, the balance of evidence currently favors the bears until price convincingly reclaims the 3.40 handle with renewed buying conviction.
All this is not any financial advice. You must do your own research and trade at your sole risk only.
