At a glance:
Goldman survey shows 59% bearish on crude
Most negative sentiment since April 2025
Oil seen as preferred short by record number
Supply glut driven by OPEC+, US, Brazil, Guyana
Geopolitics failing to offset oversupply concerns
Goldman Sachs said institutional investor sentiment toward crude oil has turned sharply bearish, with positioning now close to the most negative levels seen in nearly a decade, as markets confront a growing global supply glut.
In a survey of more than 1,100 institutional clients across asset classes, Goldman found that 59% of respondents are bearish or slightly bearish on crude, marking the weakest sentiment reading since April 2025. The result places investor confidence just shy of record lows in a monthly dataset that stretches back to January 2016.
The survey shows a record share of investors now view oil as their preferred short, reflecting mounting concerns that supply growth is outpacing demand. Respondents pointed to rising output from OPEC+, record production levels in the United States, and accelerating supply growth from Brazil and Guyana as key contributors to the emerging imbalance.
Goldman noted that geopolitical developments, while often supportive for oil prices in isolation, are currently reinforcing bearish sentiment by underscoring the market’s ability to absorb disruptions. Investors appear increasingly confident that spare capacity, non-OPEC growth, and inventory buffers are sufficient to offset most geopolitical risks, limiting upside price shocks.
The results suggest a significant shift in how institutional investors perceive oil’s risk-reward profile, with macro concerns such as slowing global growth, energy transition dynamics, and fiscal pressures weighing alongside supply-side factors. The breadth of bearish sentiment across asset classes highlights a widespread conviction that the market is entering a period of excess supply rather than scarcity.
While Goldman cautioned that extreme positioning can occasionally set the stage for short-term rebounds, the survey underscores a structural shift toward defensive or outright bearish oil strategies as investors position for prolonged oversupply and heightened volatility in energy markets.
