Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to drift lower over the next two years as a wave of new supply hits the market, pushing the global balance into a persistent surplus. In a note published Monday, the bank said it sees a roughly 2 million barrels per day oversupply through 2026, driven by the delayed arrival of major pre-pandemic projects and OPEC+’s move to unwind production cuts.
The bank now forecasts Brent crude averaging $56 and WTI $52 in 2026 — well below current forward curves of $63 and $60. The incoming supply wave reflects long-cycle investments sanctioned just before COVID-19, many of which were postponed during the pandemic and are only now entering production. OPEC+, along with rising output from the U.S. and Brazil, is adding further weight to the supply outlook.
The International Energy Agency has flagged an even larger glut in 2025, warning the surplus could exceed 4 million barrels per day, raising the risk of renewed pressure on prices.
Goldman expects the market to tighten again from 2027 onward. Years of underinvestment mean very few new projects are slated to come online, while low prices in 2025–2026 are likely to curb future non-OPEC supply growth. The bank sees Brent and WTI gradually returning to their long-run equilibrium of $80 and $76, respectively, by late 2028.
The outlook remains highly uncertain, however. Brent could slip into the $40s in 2026–2027 if non-OPEC production proves more resilient than expected or if global growth weakens. Conversely, prices could push back above $70 if Russian output falls more sharply.
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A prolonged surplus could weigh on energy equities and capex plans, though Goldman’s long-run tightening view may support the back end of the oil curve.
