Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 copper price forecast, citing a lower likelihood that the United States will impose refined copper tariffs in the first half of the year, as affordability concerns take precedence despite ongoing supply tightness.
In a note published Monday, the investment bank lifted its 2026 average price forecast to US$11,400 per metric ton, up from US$10,650. Goldman said policymakers appear increasingly sensitive to the inflationary impact of tariffs, reducing the odds of near-term implementation even as copper prices trade at elevated levels.
While the US excluded refined copper from the 50% import tariffs introduced in August, the issue remains under active review, keeping policy risk elevated. Goldman estimates a 55% probability that the Trump administration announces a 15% tariff on copper imports in the first half of 2026, with implementation expected in 2027 and a potential increase to 30% in 2028. The bank said expectations of future tariffs are likely to keep US copper prices trading at a premium to the London Metal Exchange benchmark, encouraging further stockpiling and tightening supply in ex-US markets — now a key driver of global pricing dynamics.
Goldman added that structural forces, including stockpiling and trade policy uncertainty, continue to underpin prices.
Despite the higher 2026 forecast, Goldman left its 2027 price projection unchanged at US$10,750 per ton, anticipating that LME prices would retreat once tariffs are enacted and global markets rebalance. The bank also raised its forecast for the 2026 global copper surplus to 300,000 tons from 160,000 tons, reflecting stronger supply growth further out.
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The forecast upgrade supports near-term copper prices and miners. While copper prices jumped to a record high late last week (Friday), Goldman’s unchanged 2027 view highlights downside risks once tariffs distort global flows and surplus supply builds. For the near-term, though, tight supply is an underpinning factor.
