Goldman sees gold grinding higher to $5,400/oz by end-2026, with upside skew from diversification.
Summary:
Goldman expects central bank gold buying to re-accelerate in 2026 at the pace seen in 2025.
This is in a conservative base case that assumes no additional private-sector diversification beyond current trends.
Goldman’s core view: central bank demand plus private investors adding exposure mainly in response to Fed rate cuts supports a steady rise.
House forecast: gold to “slowly grind higher” to $5,400/oz by end-2026.
Goldman flags significant upside risk if private-sector diversification increases, especially via call-option structures.
Medium-term trajectory remains upward, but with potentially elevated volatility
Goldman Sachs expects the gold market’s structural bid to remain intact through 2026, driven primarily by central bank demand and a more cyclical pickup in private investor participation tied to the Fed easing cycle.
In its 2026 outlook, Goldman says it expects central bank gold buying to re-accelerate at the pace seen in 2025, even under a conservative base case that assumes no additional private-sector diversification beyond what is already embedded in current flows. In other words, the bank’s base case does not rely on a fresh wave of private actors rotating reserves or portfolios into gold; it assumes official-sector demand does most of the heavy lifting.
Taken together, Goldman argues that (1) central bank buying and (2) private investors adding exposure largely in response to Fed rate cuts should be sufficient to push prices higher over time. The bank characterises the path as a “slow grind” rather than a straight-line surge, projecting gold to reach $5,400 per troy ounce by end-2026.
However, Goldman sees meaningful asymmetry around that forecast. It highlights significant upside risk if private-sector diversification does expand materially, particularly if expressed through call-option structures, which can amplify upside participation and accelerate price moves during momentum phases.
Net, Goldman’s medium-term trajectory for gold remains upward, but it explicitly warns that the ride could be choppy: the trend may be higher, yet volatility could stay elevated, especially around Fed policy pivots, risk shocks, and any renewed diversification wave.
