Since gold broke out of its recent range, I've been highlighting the reasons why it could go higher. It's done just and at a neck-breaking pace. It's up $420/oz in four weeks to $3747, including a $63 gain today.
If you're a gold bull (and I certainly am) this is good news but if you take a step back and look at the real world, this is a five-alarm fire. Gold is signalling many things about the real economy/world and none of them are good.
You can take your pick as a series of long and short-term factors collide:
1) The rally first kicked off with the massive expansion of government budgets/debt in covid, along with ultra-low rates
2) A second leg came after Russia invaded Ukraine and their USD-assets were frozen, highlighting that the USD is no longer a safe reserve currency if you're not friendly with the USA.
3) Trump's reelection set the stage for another leg higher as it came with another deficit-ballooning tax cut and a trade war.
But I can make an even shorter and more-concise explanation for why gold is rising every day: The global order is breaking down. The rules of conflict, trade and politics are fracturing and where it lands is anyone's guess. Even social norms are rapidly changing.
I don't think this is one of those moments whether 'the futures is always uncertain and scary' holds true either and gold is telling us that. Gold right now is a hedge against all the change at once leading down a dark path (and I haven't even mentioned AI).
As for targets, the long-term chart says it all: Gold is going parabolic. I've been highlighting $4000 as a target since the range break at the start of the month but the shallowness of the drawdowns and aggressive buying on dips makes me hopeful (and fearful) that we're going much higher.
