I would have expected the Supreme Court decision to be a negative for gold, as it opens the pathway to a reversal of tariffs and a re-affirmation of the dollar-based system.
Instead, the market seems to be taking it as a sign of further turmoil and uncertainty, which is gold bullish. The ongoing worries about a war in Iran are certainly underpinning that belief. Yesterday, Trump said Iran had 10 or "maybe 15" days to make a deal and he later confirmed that there could be a per-emptory strike to force Iran's hand.
On the seasonal side, the Lunar New Year holidays are traditionally the end of a seasonal period of strength for gold but it hasn't exactly unfolded that way this year. Gold opened the week lower but it's steadily climbed back and unless it drops $30 late, it will post the highest ever weekly close and only the second one above $5000/oz.
For the week ahead, the focus is going to be on tariffs and Iran again. We are expecting Trump to re-impose tariffs via Section 122 but the details of that are unclear, including exemptions like USMCA. He said they will be 10% but the authority grants him to impose up to 15%, which I presume he's holding back in case he needs to retaliate.
As for gold, I wouldn't celebrate too much about the record high. The key short term level is last week's high of $5118 and if it can break that, we can start talking about a re-test of the record near $5600.
That said, it's impressive that gold has held so close to the highs despite ample opportunities and reasons for some meaningful profit taking. There is clearly an underlying bid for gold in the market and unless it disappears, it's tough to be overly bearish here.
