The early New York trade seemingly always leads to some kind of move in gold but you never know which way. Lately we've been seeing sellers and yesterday and sank on the risk rout but today there are some nice bids creeping in. Gold is up $25 to $4069, which erases the late slide yesterday.
Zooming out, I expected we're headed for something like this, though likely even wider and more slowly-developing than those trendlines. A couple months of consolidation in the $3900-$4350 range would be healthy after such a big rally.
The bull case from here is that Trump manages to stack the Fed and runs the economy hot. Add in some more fiscal stimulus from congress and tariff turmoil and there is a path to $5000.
The bear case is that some sanity returns, the Fed holds firm, the Supreme Court strongly pushes back and Congress stops being a rubber stamp.
