These are some breathtaking moves in precious metals today.
Gold is now at the session low, down 10.0%, or $837, to $4855. It's an incredible reversal on the daily chart and a textbook three-candle top.
As amazing as that is, silver is something else. It's down 26%, or $29 to $86.57. Note that less than a year ago, an ounce of silver traded for $27 so this is equal to its entire value at the time. However just yesterday it traded at $121 and a 26.5% decline would be the worst percentage drop ever, worse than the post-Hunt brothers bust.
This certainly looks like a bubble bursting.
This is a real reckoning but gold at $4862 is still an unthinkably-high number compared to a year or two ago, similarly with silver. But this is the correction and if we get a year of consolidation around these levels, it's still ultimately healthy.
Some events I'm circling in the shorter term:
- What Trump does on Iran/Cuba
- The Supreme Court tariff decision
- Warsh's first speech after he's confirmed
- Whether Powell stays as a Fed Governor
For now, the party is over and it was one for the ages. In gold, I have a hard time imagining it will trade sub-$4000. If it gets down there, I think there will be some strong hands buying but I wouldn't be weighing in before that.
For holders? It's a tough call. This can turn around or bounce quickly and it's never a good idea to panic on a Friday afternoon. Could we get a 'Black Monday' kind of further selloff? I tend to think there would need to be some kind of trigger to make that happen beyond an Iran deal.
