Summary
Gold and silver prices have surged amid lower real yields and inflation concerns.
Safe-haven demand has risen on geopolitical and macro risk.
Central bank policy expectations keep real rates subdued.
A softer US dollar boosts commodity demand.
ETF inflows signal broader investor rotation into precious metals.
Gold and silver prices have climbed sharply in recent sessions, drawing fresh interest from investors seeking protection against inflationary pressures, geopolitical uncertainty and a backdrop of persistently low real yields.
A central driver of the rally has been falling real interest rates. As inflation expectations remain elevated relative to nominal bond yields, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold and silver has diminished. This dynamic has underpinned bullion demand as investors adjust portfolios in anticipation of a more prolonged period of easy financial conditions.
Risk sentiment has also played a role. Ongoing geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East, combined with elevated concerns over the pace of global growth, have boosted demand for safe-haven assets. Traditionally, gold is one of the first ports of call during periods of heightened uncertainty, while silver, with both industrial and monetary demand drivers, has benefited from spill-over flows.
Currency dynamics have further added fuel to the move. A softer US dollar, pressured by dovish forward guidance and expectations of prolonged low real rates, tends to lift dollar-priced commodities, making bullion cheaper for holders of other currencies.
Physical demand trends and ETF flows have also been constructive. Data from bullion ETFs show renewed inflows into gold and silver, suggesting that institutional and retail investors are rotating into precious metals as part of broader risk management strategies.
Then charts show prices approaching what appear to be psychologically resistance levels. Round numbers often act this way. For gold right now its US$4500, and for silver US$70.
