ICYMI:
- US attacks Venezuela, captures President Maduro
- Happy New Year, especially to Venezuelans! Monday early FX rates guide
- Venezuela - Goldman sees 2026 Brent at $56 & WTI at $52, flags longer-term downside risks
And Trump later spoke:
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Gold and silver pushed sharply higher today as a cluster of macro, geopolitical and positioning forces aligned in favour of precious metals, reinforcing the broader bullish narrative that has been building into the new year.
None of this is new (well, Venezuela is, but we've covered it extensively already).
Markets continue to reassess the trajectory of US monetary policy. While the Federal Reserve continues to signal caution on the timing of further rate cuts, investors remain priced for easing later this year. That expectation, combined with softer inflation momentum and signs of labour-market cooling, has kept pressure on real yields, a key tailwind for non-yielding assets such as gold and silver.
At the same time, geopolitical risk has escalated materially, providing a classic safe-haven bid. The US intervention in Venezuela, combined with President Trump’s increasingly confrontational rhetoric toward Colombia and Mexico, has raised concerns about regional instability in Latin America. These developments have come on top of already elevated global tensions, encouraging portfolio hedging and defensive positioning in precious metals.
Central-bank demand remains another powerful structural support, particularly for gold. Ongoing diversification away from the US dollar by several reserve managers continues to underpin prices, reinforcing gold’s role as a neutral reserve asset at a time when geopolitical fragmentation and sanctions risk remain high.
Silver, meanwhile, has been outperforming on a dual demand narrative. Alongside its safe-haven appeal, silver is benefiting from expectations of resilient industrial demand, particularly linked to electrification, solar energy and advanced manufacturing. As growth fears ease slightly and the outlook stabilises, silver tends to gain leverage to both macro reflation and risk hedging — a dynamic clearly on display today.
Finally, technical and positioning factors amplified the move. Thin liquidity early in the year, combined with momentum-based buying and short-covering after recent consolidations, helped accelerate gains once key resistance levels were breached.
Taken together, the rally reflects a market that is increasingly comfortable holding precious metals as both a hedge against geopolitical shock and a medium-term play on easier financial conditions, weaker real yields and structural demand growth, conditions that remain firmly in place.
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The gold chart above is the appetizer, silver looks like the mains:
