FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Oil prices have come under some pressure yesterday after Trump basically confirmed the WSJ report in a Truth Social post that he would be open to end the war with Iran without the Strait of Hormuz opening condition.
The losses extended further later in the day when the Iranian President said that they were ready to end the war but wanted guarantees.
Prices bounced today as Iranian parliament sources reportedly said that the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen, they haven’t held any negotiations with the US, and they won’t hold them. We’ve been getting mixed messages for a couple of weeks, but there’s now stronger evidence that the US and Iran have indeed been in talks, even if indirectly.
Traders will continue to keep a close eye on US-Iran headlines and Trump’s Truth Social account as the end of the war should trigger a strong selloff in oil, while further escalation might take us to new highs. Trump today is expected to address the nation at 21:00 ET/01:00 GMT giving an “important” update on Iran.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On the daily chart, we can see that crude oil is still trading above the key 93.00 zone. If the price pulls all the way back to the zone, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the zone to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to pile in for a drop into the 78.00 support next.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 4 hour chart, we can see the price bounced on the minor trendline as the buyers stepped in with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers will look for a break lower to start targeting a break below the 93.00 zone and the major trendline. We will likely find buyers there stepping in to position for another rally.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1 hour chart, we have a minor downward trendline defining the recent pullback. We can expect the sellers to continue to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break to increase the bullish bets into new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
Today we have the US ADP, the US Retail Sales and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report. Do note that we have also Trump addressing the nation today at 21:00 ET/01:00 GMT giving an “important” update on Iran.
