China has imposed sweeping new export controls that extend far beyond semiconductors, covering key industrial inputs like rare earths and even drilling equipment.
Headlines on this here from yesterday:
- China's Commerce Ministry tightens rules on rare earths exports
- China commerce ministry announces export control on some rare earth equipment, materials
- EU expresses concern about China's decision to further curb rare earth exports
Following up on this:
Analysts say the move effectively asserts Chinese leverage over critical global supply chains tied to “new productive forces.”
Bill Bishop interprets the actions as Beijing’s message that it will no longer tolerate U.S. restrictions — “calling Washington’s bluff” rather than simply signalling before APEC talks. He warns the escalation cycle could accelerate if the Trump administration retaliates.
Policy analyst Dean W. Ball called the move “a very big deal,” saying it gives China de facto control over the world’s semiconductor supply chain. If strictly enforced, he argues, it could halt the US AI boom and trigger a short-term economic crisis. Ball sees the timing as leverage ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting at APEC, not an attempt to ease U.S. export limits on Nvidia chips.
He urges the U.S. to tighten export controls on semiconductor manufacturing equipment, identify consumable materials China cannot make domestically, and retaliate selectively. He also stresses the need to accelerate allied rare-earth mining and refining to reduce dependence on China.
Both analysts agree the new measures mark a sharp escalation in the tech and trade confrontation — one that could reshape global supply chains and force faster diversification away from Chinese critical-mineral dominance.
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The bolding above is mine. Nothing seems to be able to dent the AI stock boom. Will that last?
