I think this was originally in the Financial Times, but an ungated version is at Business Times.
In summary:
China may be buying far more gold than its official data suggests, with analysts estimating actual purchases could exceed reported figures by a factor of ten as Beijing intensifies efforts to reduce reliance on the US dollar. While the People’s Bank of China disclosed only minimal volumes this year — 1.9 tonnes in July and August and 2.2 tonnes in June — few traders believe those numbers reflect the true scale of demand.
Societe Generale analysts, drawing on trade flows and customs data, estimate China could acquire as much as 250 tonnes of gold in 2025, representing more than a third of expected global central-bank buying. The opacity around Chinese accumulation has made it increasingly difficult for traders to read the market, especially as central banks have become the dominant force behind bullion’s record rally above US$4,300 per ounce.
Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle, said China’s accumulation aligns with its long-running de-dollarisation strategy but stressed there is no reliable way to track flows. Unlike commodities such as oil, gold is uniquely opaque, with no satellite or pipeline data to reveal end-buyers.
To compensate, traders have turned to indirect indicators, such as orders for freshly cast 400-ounce bars with sequential serial numbers — typically refined in Switzerland or South Africa, routed through London, and flown to China. Market participants say these signals suggest China is accumulating far more than it reveals.
Bruce Ikemizu of the Japan Bullion Market Association believes China’s gold reserves may be closer to 5,000 tonnes, roughly double its reported holdings. His view aligns with a broader surge in official-sector demand: World Gold Council data shows gold’s share of global reserves outside the US has jumped from 10% to 26% over the past decade, solidifying bullion as the world’s second-largest reserve asset after the dollar.
