Barclays warns that Brent crude could surge above $85 a barrel if Russian oil exports decline sharply, arguing that markets are underestimating how vulnerable prices remain to supply-side shocks. The bank’s analysis stands in stark contrast to most 2026 forecasts, which cluster in the mid-$50s to mid-$60s and assume a smooth rebalancing of global supply and demand.
Barclays says the risk lies in the asymmetric nature of the market: while demand risks are well understood, upside supply shocks—particularly disruptions to Russian shipments from sanctions or logistical constraints—are not adequately priced in. A meaningful drop in Russian flows would quickly drain inventories and could trigger a sharp rally in Brent, the bank says.
Barclays acknowledges uncertainty around timing and probability, but argues the scenario is credible enough to warrant attention from traders and policymakers, especially given the potential inflationary impact of a prolonged price spike.
