ANZ expects oil prices to stay capped through the first half of 2026 as supply outpaces demand, before a potential recovery emerges later in the year on improving global growth. The bank says lower refinery run rates and rising OPEC+ output are likely to drive a build-up in global crude inventories, keeping Brent below $65/bbl in early 2026 and limiting any near-term upside.
ANZ forecasts that the oil market will shift into surplus next year as production increases outstrip consumption gains, which should prevent Brent from sustaining a strong rally. However, it sees a floor around $60/bbl, citing continued risks from Russia–Ukraine attacks on energy infrastructure, which could keep geopolitical risk premia elevated.
By the second half of 2026, ANZ expects a revival in the global economy to offer more meaningful support to prices, allowing Brent to edge back toward $70/bbl, though any rebound is expected to be modest given the broader surplus backdrop.
