Yen recovery to ¥147 forecast on BoJ rate hike prospects - eases intervention pressure

  • Rabobank’s call reinforces expectations that BoJ tightening speculation will offer near-term support for the yen, while highlighting the ministry’s readiness to act if dollar/yen stays elevated.
TradeCompass: Japanese Yen Futures Analysis – 13 January 2025
TradeCompass: Japanese Yen Futures Analysis 13 January 2025

Rabobank expects the Japanese yen to strengthen over the next few months as markets anticipate another Bank of Japan rate hike, a move that could ease pressure for official currency intervention.

In a note to clients, senior FX strategist Jane Foley said the yen’s recent weakness against the U.S. dollar raises the risk that Japan’s Ministry of Finance might step in to support the currency if losses persist.

However, Foley said growing speculation about a possible BoJ rate increase in December could help the yen recover before intervention becomes necessary. Rabobank forecasts the dollar will fall to ¥147 within three months, compared with recent levels above ¥154.

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