What's priced in for the FOMC ahead of today's rate decision

  • The market is pricing in a 10% chance of a surprise hold
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If you want to know what's coming at the top of the hour, read my FOMC preview.A hike would take the Fed funds rate to 5.00-5.25%.

Here's what the Fed funds futures market sees:

  • 90% chance of of a 25 bps hike today
  • 10% chance of no change
  • Virtually no chance of a hike for the June 14 meeting priced in
  • Year-end Fed funds futures 4.376%, which is nearly 75 bps below the expected peak

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