The Bank of Canada decision is at 9:45 am ET and the latest commentary from Governor Macklem is that they would be putting more emphasis on risk and trying to be forward looking.
How does the OIS market see it:
- 92% chance of a cut today to 2.25%
- 24% chance of a further cut in December
- 53% chance of a cut in January
- 72% chance of a cut in March
The curve flattens from there with the market seeing a terminal bottom at 2.25% or 2.00%. That would be the bottom end of neutral or just below. It would leave some dry powder if trade or economic outcomes disappoint.
