US inflation data this week expected to show core CPI moving sideways - risk ahead higher

  • Bank of America economists anticipate US October CPI data to show stable core inflation at 3.3% y/y, with potential upside risks looming from pro-growth fiscal policies, tariffs, and immigration changes.

A note via Bank of America economists on expectations and wariness on US October CPI data due Wednesday at 8.30 am US Eastern time.

BoA expect core CPI to show an increase of 0.3% m/m month

  • holding at 3.3% y/y
  • would be the third consecutive month with a 3.3% core reading

BoA say that looking ahead, the rise is inflation tilted to the upside:

  • "We see pro-growth fiscal policy, tariffs, and tighter immigration as potential sources of upside inflation risk over the coming years if they are implemented"
us inflation cpi forecast 12 November 2024 2

Higher inflation to come would slow/halt/reverse (you can pick more than one ;-)) Federal Reserve rate cuts.

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