If US equity market movements are anything to go by a downside surprise seems the most likely:
Strong start to the new trading week in the US stock market
However ... this tweet from the Wall Street Journal's ace Fed reporter:
The paper he is referring to is here:
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CPI data is due at 8.30am US Eastern time, which is 1330 GMT.
Previews here:
- Goldman Sachs on US Jan. CPI: "potential to interrupt the more relaxed inflation outlook"
- (this one also includes JP Morgan's scenarios for the stock market)
- US CPI report due Tuesday, 14 February 2023 - preview
- Revisions make for a particularly tricky US CPI report
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Repeating myself from yesterday ....
Background to this is that back in June of 2022 Timiraos dropped the bombshell during the Federal Reserve blackout period:
WSJ Fedwatcher Nick Timiraos is just out with a new report previewing the FOMC.
- "A string of troubling inflation reports in recent days is likely to lead Federal Reserve officials to consider surprising markets with a larger-than-expected 0.75-percentage-point interest rate increase at their meeting this week," he writes.
- The report is speculation but it taps into the old-style Fed leaks.
That post, as was Timiraos, was spot-on. Timiraos has thus been crowned the new Hilsenrath (you may remember his role during the Bernanke Fed as a provider of Fed-insider info).
