UK pay settlements hit lowest since 2021 as hiring and wages weaken

  • Eases pressure on BoE tightening outlook; softer wages weigh on GBP, though fiscal risks may limit downside.
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UK employers offered their lowest pay settlements since late 2021 in July, while hiring slowed further, according to new surveys. Bolding below is mine. Very weak wages for new hires:

  • Median wage awards fell to 3% in the three months to July, down from 3.4% in June, with only 9% of firms offering increases of 4% or more compared to 39% previously.
  • Recruiters also reported that starting salaries for permanent jobs rose at the weakest pace in four-and-a-half years, even as candidate availability jumped to its highest since 2020 amid redundancies and job security concerns.

The softer pay backdrop is likely to ease inflation worries at the Bank of England, though employers remain cautious ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ November budget, where more tax rises are feared.

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