Via a Friday note from UBS, analysts at the bank say:
“We continue to believe recent economic data underpin our view that a return of disinflation should allow the Fed to start easing policy later this year”
UBS say data in recent weeks has been a little softer.
On inflation specifically, UBS point to price pressures easing in recent months in categories such as shelter. This should bring the CPI down in the months ahead.
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Fed officials have been saying that one month's improvement in inflation will not be enough. If we assume 3 months would be needed, ie. a quarter (and yeah, this is just an assumption) then the earliest we could see a rate cut would be the spet meeting. That'd be a close run thing.
