The latest reports we got on the Federal Reserve Chairman decision were last week and suggested that Trump would make a decision either just before or just after going to Davos.
He left Davos yesterday and is now back in Washington so it could be on the agenda for today or this weekend.
It seems that Trump has already made up his mind.
"We're down to three, but we're down to two. And I probably can tell you we're down to maybe one in my mind," he told CNBC in Davos.
The odds are notable as Rick Rieder continues to climb and is now at 35%, narrowly behind Warsh. Trump seemed to rule out former favorite Kevin Hassett once again.
Trump said: "I'd like to actually keep him where he is if you want to know the truth. I don't want to lose him. He's so good on television."
Trump also said that Rieder was "very impressive" in his interview.
I think that Warsh is still by far the most-likely winner. He's been lobbying for this job for many years and has kept quiet in the run-up to the decision. Trump frequently says that he regrets choosing Powell over Warsh, who was the runner up last time.
The market seems to be taking the decision in stride. Hassett was seen as the chief yes-man for Trump and now that he's seemingly ruled out, the market doesn't hate any of the candidates. I'm not so sure that Warsh isn't similar to Hassett.
In any case, I think the clearest way we will see it in markets is in gold. If Trump picks Warsh, gold's likely to rise while if he picks Rieder it will fall.
Waller is an interesting case as he's lately frequently touted the dovish talking points but I suspect the market views that as something of a political move and that if confirmed, he would go back to the old Waller, who was more of a hawk.
