The one thing that doesn't make sense to me about the Fed is the calendar.
To my way of thinking, you want to make your decision-making and communication as systematic as possible. Yet the Fed has this funky calendar where they have different sets of information at each meeting.
Wouldn't it be better to have a system where they get non-farm payrolls and CPI then a week to communicate it and then have the meeting?
This week illustrates the problem as the non-farm payrolls report came right before the Fed blackout. So now we're in a position where we have to wait for some kind of leak or guess what the Fed will do after CPI. It's a mess.
Right now market pricing is 10% for 50 bps but what if we get a soft CPI report? Or some other negative economic news?
Do we really want to go into the FOMC priced at a one-in-four chance of a 50 bps cut? That's just going to create the kind of volatility that the Fed usually aims to avoid.
