Rabobank and UBS see the Swiss franc staying firm as safe-haven demand outweighs intervention risks.
Summary:
Rabobank and UBS expect CHF to stay well supported
Safe-haven flows underpinned by strong Swiss fundamentals
SNB easing or FX intervention seen as limited in impact
EUR/CHF forecast trimmed to 0.91 (3-month, Rabobank), from 0.92
Strong franc a headwind for exporters but not yet intervention-worthy
The Swiss franc is expected to remain one of the more resilient currencies into 2026, with both Rabobank and UBS arguing that global uncertainty and Switzerland’s domestic stability should continue to underpin safe-haven demand.
Rabobank says the franc “fits the textbook requirement for a safe haven,” citing Switzerland’s credible institutions, robust legal framework, current account surplus and strong fiscal position. In an environment of persistent financial market disruption, those characteristics are likely to keep the currency well bid.
Reflecting that view, Rabobank has lowered its three-month EUR/CHF forecast to 0.91 from 0.92 previously, implying a slightly stronger franc than previously anticipated.
While there is a possibility that the Swiss National Bank could respond to excessive strength by cutting rates back into negative territory or stepping up currency interventions, Foley suggests such measures may have limited and potentially temporary impact. The structural appeal of the franc during periods of uncertainty may overwhelm policy efforts aimed at softening it.
UBS strikes a similarly constructive tone, describing the franc as a “rock of stability” amid global uncertainties and elevated debt levels. The bank expects Switzerland’s macro stability to continue attracting capital inflows, reinforcing demand for CHF assets.
That said, UBS does not expect systematic intervention from the SNB at current levels. While a firm currency presents challenges for the Swiss export sector, policymakers are unlikely to react aggressively unless appreciation becomes more disorderly. Cyclical developments—such as a potential recovery in Europe, could also temporarily weigh on the franc, reducing the urgency for policy action.
Taken together, the outlook from both banks suggests CHF strength remains fundamentally driven rather than purely speculative. As long as geopolitical and financial market risks linger, the franc’s safe-haven status is likely to keep it supported, even in the face of potential policy easing.
