- Inflation forecasts remain within price stability range over the forecast horizon
- Inflation pressures are not changed whatsoever compared to Q2
- Uncertainty about inflation and economic developments though are still elevated
- US tariffs present a major challenge, likely to dampen economic activity
- Global economic outlook has slowed, particularly in US (vice chairman Tschudin)
- Global developments have been dampened by US tariffs and ongoing high uncertainty (Tschudin)
- Swiss economic outlook is uncertain, has deteriorated significantly due to US tariffs (Tschudin)
- Main risk for Switzerland right now is US trade policy (Tschudin)
At the balance, they are skewed towards focusing on the downside risks to the economy as a result of Trump's tariffs. But for the time being, that's not enough to get them to pursue negative rates - at least not by year-end it would seem.
