Economists have upgraded their outlook for Singapore’s economy in 2025, reflecting stronger-than-expected momentum this year, while continuing to expect monetary policy to remain on hold at the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s (MAS) next review in January.
According to the MAS quarterly survey of forecasters, median growth expectations for 2025 have been lifted to 4.1%, a sharp improvement from the 2.4% forecast in the previous survey. The upgrade follows a run of upside surprises in activity data, including a stronger third-quarter GDP print, and aligns with the Ministry of Trade and Industry’s recent move to raise its official growth forecast to around 4.0%. Growth in the fourth quarter is expected to come in at a solid 3.6% year on year, reinforcing the view that the recovery has broadened.
Looking beyond next year, economists expect growth to moderate to 2.3% in 2026, consistent with a more mature phase of the cycle and less support from base effects. While the near-term outlook has improved, respondents remain cautious about medium-term risks. Geopolitical tensions were cited as the most prominent downside risk, while concerns about a potential unwinding of the artificial intelligence-driven investment cycle emerged as a new theme in this survey.
On the policy front, there is strong consensus that the MAS will leave monetary policy unchanged at its January review, having already kept settings steady in October. Most economists also see policy remaining on hold in April, reflecting subdued inflation pressures and the MAS’s comfort with current conditions. Only a small minority anticipate any tightening by mid-2026.
Inflation forecasts remain benign. Core inflation is expected to average 0.7% in 2025, unchanged from the previous survey, while headline inflation is seen at 0.9%. Both measures are expected to pick up modestly in 2026, but remain well within the MAS’s tolerance range.
Overall, the survey paints a picture of a Singapore economy that has regained momentum, supported by trade and technology-related activity, while giving policymakers room to remain patient as inflation stays low and risks remain tilted to the downside.
