From the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Says the researcher has found a recession predictor based on macroeconomic time series, particularly the jobless unemployment rate.
- This predictor is almost as accurate as the slope of the yield curve but is more accurate at shorter horizons.
If you are just after a recession prediction, the paper's conclusion is that there is no US recession on the horizon:
- The jobless rate does not currently signal an impending recession, nor do other macroeconomic time series analyzed using the same methodology.
- In general, however, examining these series suggests that the business cycle is at a maturing stage when expansions typically come to an end.
Here is the link to the article if you are interested in more (holiday reading!).
