- Beige book showed modest growth but not very fast.
- Right now is unusual. Risks to employment is to the downside and inflation is to the upside.
- Over the summer labor market has softened.
- Focus on inflation needs to moderate to a more balanced approach
- We will look at labor market, growth data, inflation data and ask if policy is in the right place.
- If policy is not in the right place, we will move it there
- Aggregate households are in good shape.
- It is not a time of elevated financial stability risks.
- Cannot say that labor market is really solid anymore
NASDAQ index moves to new session lows.
- We are not targeting prices for financial assets.
- Equity prices are fairly highly valued
- The hiring rate has really dropped
- Not hiring may be one of the ways of passing off tariffs costs
- AI could be the reason for lack of hiring for new grads but can't say it's the main reason
- Tariff pass-through has been later and less than expected
- Our forecast is for tariffs to be a one-time passthrough, finished by year-end
- It's a reasonable base case that pass through will be done by year end
- That's almost everyone's base case
