Citi on the Bank of Japan meeting this week (October 30 - 31). The market view is for no change to policy at this meeting.
Citi, too, is tipping no policy change.
- we share the widely held view that policy will be left unchanged
- consensus is a rate hike in either December or January
Citi are forecasting December
- we do not expect the BoJ to signal for it vigorously in October given uncertainty around the approaching US election and payroll data
- BoJ will likely emphasize the continued trend of rate hikes while pointing to external uncertainty
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I suspect the Japanese election result last weekend may shift views to January for the next BoJ rate hike soon enough.
