Powell sees strong possibility that trade progress will move Fed away from goals

  • Comments from the Fed Chairman
Fed Powell
  • We will be moving away from goals for the balance of the year, perhaps we can resume next year
  • Tariffs are higher than we expected even in our upside case
  • To the extent it takes longer for tariffs to hit, that risks higher inflation expectations
  • Our role is to make sure this is a one-time increase in prices only
  • CEOs he spoke with yesterday say uncertainty and imports are 'a huge issue'
  • Notes that covid shortages of chips led to disruption of autos and it contributed to inflation
  • We are still at full employment
  • Tension between goals would be a difficult position for the Fed
  • We could well be in that situation and it will be a very difficult judgement
  • There isn't a modern experience for how to think about high tariff rates -- these are higher that Smoot-Hawley
  • Markets are orderly, functioning as would expect
  • We stand ready to supply dollars to global central banks if needed
  • Domestic discretionary spending is small and not the issue regarding US government debt

The stock market is selling off on his comments

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