- We will make decisions meeting-by-meeting now
- We will ask if we're seeing a slowdown in economic data that we think we need? We think we're getting some evidence now
- We will be watching both core and headline inflation and what they say about the outlook
- We need to get policy to at least a moderately restrictive level
- We think it's time to go to a meeting by meeting basis and not provide clear guidance
- We have to take estimates of where rates will be next year with a grain of salt
- 3.00-3.50% is what the SEP says on a moderately restrictive stance at year end
- Latest inflation report was worse than expected
- By Sept, we'll have more inflation data in hand
- Will ask ourselves 'are we confident that inflation is on the way to 2%?'
- It's necessary to have a growth slowdown, it's going to be slowing down
- We think we need a period of growth below potential to create some slack
- We expect some softening in labor market conditions
- We don't think need have to have a recession but the path to that has narrowed
- I don't think we're currently in a recession. There are too many areas of economy doing too well, particularly jobs
- I haven't seen the Q2 GDP report
The dollar is tumbling and equities are soaring after Powell shifted to a meeting-by-meeting stance.
Powell also passed up on the opportunity to push back on the market's pricing of rate cuts in 2023.
