- September and today was a risk management cut, that's not the case going forward
- Policymakers have different forecasts and have different risk tolerance
- Repeats the 'far from it' comment about a foregone December rate cut
- We have a clear assessment that we are only slightly above ample in reserves
- We see a very gradual cooling in employment but nothing more than that, gives us some comfort
- If there is a significant change in the economy, we will pick that up
- We don't know what data we will have in December
- We see a labor market that is not clearly declining quickly
- Aside from tariffs, we're not far from 2% inflation goal
- We are watching inflation expectations very closely
- Policy is still modestly restrictive
- What do you do if you're driving in the fog? You slow down (meaning they will slow cuts)
- Watching layoff announcements very carefully
- We are now in the range of neutral rates
- There is a sense from some of 'lets pause' and a sense from others of 'lets go ahead'
- There are strongly differing views
- Everyone on the committee is deeply committed to our goals
- There has been a dramatic reduction in the supply of new workers, highlights immigration decline
- You don't see too much leverage in the banking system or the financial system
- This is different from the dot-com era, there was a clear bubble back then
- The companies that are highly valued actually have earnings
- AI investment is clearly one of the big sources of growth but consumer spending has been strong too
- Think economy is growing around 1.6% this year
- Highlights no material change in state-level unemployment claims and Indeed job openings
The key line in the opening statement was:
"In the committee's discussions at this meeting there were strongly different views about how to proceed in December. A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion."
The Fed didn't like that a December cut was 92% priced in. That's quickly fallen to 70%.
