- When tariff policies settle out, it's too early to say what will be the implications for the economy
- Says "I don't think we know" how long it will take to understand risks
- Economy has been resilient and is in good shape
- We don't think we need to be in a hurry, the data may move quickly or slowly
- We've had 'decent' readings in housing services prices and non-housing services prices
- There is still much we don't know
- "The costs of waiting to see further are fairly low."
- When we can make a better assessment we can move quickly
- Asked if the Fed will cut at all says they don't know, there are cases they wouldn't cut at all and cases where cutting would be appropriate
- Uncertainty about the economy is extremely elevated and that the downside risks have increased, both higher unemployment and higher inflation
- It's obvious that the right thing for us to do is
- The 2024 rate cuts weren't preemptive. "If anything, it was a little late."
- Businesses and households are concerned and postponing decisions
- If nothing alleviates those decisions, you would expect it to eventually show up in data
- We think we can wait and move when it's clear
- People are feeling stress but unemployment hasn't gone up, initial jobless claims are not increasing in any kind of impressive way
- The change in sentiment has been 'outsized'
The odds of a June rate cut are down to 22%. The US dollar is at the highs of the day, I'd guess that's on trade optimism rather than anything Powell has said.
