- Labor market changes are mostly from immigration changes
- Changes in employment are much more about immigration changes
- "I don't think we can say" that policy no longer warrants a restrictive policy setting
- We were right to wait previously
- No widespread support for 50 bps today
- Change in balance of risks suggests need to move in direction of neutral
- You can think of this as a risk-management cut
The market hasn't liked the lack of clear dovish signals. There is a big turn lower in the S&P 500, now down 34 points, or 0.5%.
- The risks of higher inflation are 'a little bit less' than they were in April
- In the labor market, we're seeing downside risks
- We are in a meeting-by-meeting stance, we are going to be looking at the data
- Highlights that the forecasts aren't a consensus forecast
- We have 10 participants who wrote down 2 more cuts for the rest of the year and 9 saw less than that
- Inappropriate to comment on Cook's court cast
- The benchmark revisions to non-farm payrolls 'were almost exactly what we expected'
- I'm not blessing what the market is pricing in at all
- Tariffs are mostly being paid by companies that sit in between the exporter and the consumer
- The companies in that spot say they have every intention of passing that onto the consumer
- Asked about whether he will leave in May says "I have nothing new"
