- We want to make more progress on inflation
- We are in a pretty good place with this economy
- We cannot control long rates (what about that decade of QE?)
- Higher mortgage rates are less related to Fed policy and more to Treasury yields
- View of risks on budget deficit, inflation expectations are among drivers of long-term rates
- I too am troubled by quantity of reports on debanking
Risk assets have been making a steady recovery and the S&P 500 is now positive.
More:
- We believe the neutral rate has risen from very low pre-pandemic level
- Concern on labor market has diminished considerably form mid-2024
- It's not obvious that lower rates would lead to lower housing inflation
- Whether cost of tariffs reaches the consumer depends on factors we haven't seen yet
- There's also a question of how persistent and large those costs will be
